Fantasy football mailbag: Allen Robinsons bounceback season, Curtis Samuel vs. D.J. Moore, do

May 2024 · 15 minute read

A list of “Do Not Draft” players emerged on ESPN+ this morning with Patrick Mahomes as the headliner. That’s crazy, right? Right? — Cameron H.

I think what they were going for was this: you shouldn’t draft Mahomes at his current ADP. But as the game gets a little more diversified every year — with the rise of auctions, SuperFlex, 2QB leagues — the quarterback ADP is going to be all over the place anyway. So this is speaking to a specific group (albeit it a very large one, as most leagues just start one quarterback).

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In standard 1QB leagues, you don’t draft Mahomes at his current ADP (26.7) because… of 2018 Patrick Mahomes — a stud late-round QB who won leagues for people because they were able to use their first seven picks stacking up the other skill positions. This year’s Mahomes could be Kyler Murray (100.7 ADP), Dak Prescott (131.6), Lamar Jackson (135.8), or maybe even Nick Foles (211.2). But the point here is that Mahomes’ success as a late-round pick last year has basically made picking a QB early this year a fool’s errand.

However, I wonder if a major outlet like ESPN telling people to not draft Mahomes early will drive his price down to a point (50-ish ADP?) where you can justify taking him in a regular draft? In other words, how much can ESPN move the market? Enough to the point where they can, in a couple weeks, legitimately say, “Okay, now you can draft Mahomes (because his ADP has dropped 25-plus spots)!” People who don’t know any better may dump on them for doing that, but really they simply created the circumstances where it could happen by influencing his ADP.

Groovy, right?

One last point on Mahomes before moving along. In auctions, this whole philosophy is out the window. I actually don’t mind spending up for a quarterback because there is no direct opportunity cost. In other words, if I use a third-round pick on Mahomes, I cannot draft a Keenan Allen, Leonard Fournette, or George Kittle-type, who will be taken within 3-4 picks of my Mahomes selection by other teams. That’s just a straight one-in, one-out tradeoff. But in an auction, I can realistically get all four of these players (Mahomes, Fournette, Kittle, Allen) if I want to dedicate my budget to them.

Yes, the money spent on Mahomes will then not be available for someone else, but you don’t get direct fallout from the move. Costs change within the auction and player values shift dramatically with all kinds of factors. So if you want Mahomes in an auction, go for it. If you want him in a draft, consider what you’re directly missing out on before you call his name.

Which WR is better value at this point – Curtis Samuel or DJ Moore? — David K.

According to NFFC ADP, Samuel is currently carrying a 96.9 ADP, while Moore’s is 49.3. So the knee-jerk answer is Samuel, because you can get him much later and he has as good a chance as Moore to be Carolina’s No. 1 receiver.

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Think of it like this: would you rather have Moore and Royce Freeman or Calvin Ridley and Samuel? I’d go for the latter, and that’s how things could look if you wait for Samuel.

And while I think that’s enough of an argument, it seems weak without numbers. So let’s throw some in. Moore wrapped up 2018 with 8-plus targets in five of his final seven games. That’s steadiness. But he maxed at nine targets and while he had a big Week 11 (157 yards, TD), his production fluctuated and he only scored two touchdowns on the season.

Samuel, meanwhile, was all over the place with targets, but had a game of 11 and another of 13. He didn’t have a 100-yard game, but he managed two of 80-plus and scored five touchdowns.

I dug deeper over at FantasyData.

Moore had a 15.1% target share last year; Samuel had 14.4%. That’s a wash. Samuel was 25th in the NFL in air yards per target with 6.2. Moore was 66th at 4.7. But look at true catch rate (which is total catchable targets divided by receptions) and it swings back the other way — Moore is 36th with 84.6% and Samuel is 68th with 76.5%.

So this brings us right back to that emoji with the guy shrugging. You may have your personal favorite of the two (and this is the royal you, not directly to David K.), but the more you dig, the more they appear to even out, and with a huge ADP gap and no definitive hammer, I’d rather have Samuel.

What players do you see as bounce-back candidates this year? Guys who typically have played well but had a down year last year. — Sam R.

Allen Robinson is probably my biggest bounce-back target this draft season. I was a fan before I had a lengthy podcast conversation with Kevin Fishbain (our Bears writer), but he said something in the show that pushed me over the edge with Robinson (and a lot of the Bears in general):

This time last year they were watching 2017 Chiefs tape. That’s what they were watching to learn the offense. This year they can watch 2018 Bears tape. And that makes a big difference in the way these guys can learn. This time last year, everything was new. Now these guys know where to be. They understand Mitch, they understand the types of plays that they’re going to run. There’s just a lot more comfort. And Matt Nagy said  at the owners meetings that he expects every single player on offense to be better, simply because they know what they’re doing.

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Compelling, right? Then he adds this:

I think he’ll (Robinson) be a star this year. I think that you saw it in the Eagles game in the fourth quarter. You saw it in a couple of games during the season. I would say he’s been the best player on offense, which he should be… It’s been really impressive to watch him because we didn’t really get to see this last year in training camp because he was still coming back from the ACL. So things were a little slow. But he’s been dominating at training camp and I think you’re seeing glimpses of what he can do for this team. So if there’s one guy on the offense that you can be confident has the potential for Pro Bowl numbers, it’d be him.

So that’s Robinson.

I’m also very high on pretty much every Jaguar, but specifically Nick Foles, Dede Westbrook, and Leonard Fournette. And then a little Chris Conley. John DeFilippo is a great offensive mind (look at the Vikings in the first half of last year) and Doug Marrone doesn’t get enough credit for his offensive scheming, either. The Jags were terrible last year and I think DeFilippo’s offense gets them back to the playoffs, led by Foles and Westbrook.

I guess for a third answer, I’d say Mike Williams. Although he never really had a big season before, but he had the hype.

Is there one big thing you see new owners do that messes up their team in their first draft? — Keegan G.

Not having a queue filled to the brim. That leads to panic moves and unwanted draft picks. Just forget the chat, first of all. You don’t need to joke around in a chat room for two hours with people you probably do this with over text and email daily. Ignore it all. Focus on your queue and treat the draft like a living, breathing thing. As players get taken, you’re going to have to react. Move players up and down your queue. You know that thing where someone takes a player juuuust before you were about to take him, and you slam the table in anger and say, “Oh, John, respect man… I was about to take him!” — don’t be that person. You shouldn’t even get to that point because you should have Plan A, B, and C ready to go based on what’s happening way before your pick.

Also, over-prepare. The draft doesn’t start at 8 p.m. on August 30th. It started two weeks before. Go into the draft room and build up your queue, do mock drafts, figure out what a team could look like. If you read about a sleeper, write his name down and keep a running list so you don’t forget that, in mid-August, you heard some good stuff about Dontrell Hilliard and you want him. Highlight the parts of the draft where you don’t like anyone in a 20+/- ADP range and figure out who to take there instead. Or trade that pick if you’re in a keeper league for a couple later ones.

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But consider the draft as your test and the weeks up to it as your chance to study. Come in prepared and you’ll be ahead of the game.

Are people being overly cautious about Zeke due to the recency of Le’Veon Bell’s saga, or is it right to avoid him if you have one of the first three picks? — Raymond N.

There is no answer to this one, Raymond. Just like there was no answer with Bell last year, when we did everything we could to figure out what was going to happen.

I personally think the one thing that can calm fantasy owners is Jerry Jones owning the Cowboys. Yes he’s a character, yes he’s a bit of a loose cannon, but that guy genuinely loves that team and cares about it a ton. I don’t think he’s going to let Ezekiel Elliott hold out into the season. This is total gut here, but in the absence of precedent or personally knowing Ezekiel Elliott, it’s all I have. Jerry Jones does not mess around. And he knows football. And if Ezekiel Elliott is going to help you win games, in a sport where four games represent 25 percent of the season and your division has the 2017 Super Bowl winner in it — I don’t think he’s going to let Elliott stay out for long.

And keep in mind that before Le’Veon Bell 2018, there was Le’Veon Bell 2017, who came back and played after a training camp holdout.

So, in short, I’m still going with Elliott as my first round pick (no matter where I pick) and then just crossing my fingers super hard and getting an extra RB or two at the end.

I always like to throw a dart at a player with major upside in a dynamic offense with the last pick of my draft. When doing mocks I often end up with Mecole Hardman, Darwin Thompson, or Matt Brieda. What do you think of this strategy and what players do you think would be worth a dart throw? — Caleb F.

This is the only way to live. Drafting boring players and handcuffs at the end of the draft is no fun. My end-of-draft/$1 players include:

Thanks for this! I have three Round 3 picks this year. Any suggestions on how I might approach that in .5 PPR, 4-pt touchdown league with 10 teams. — Brad M.

I would break down the third round and see what there’s a lot of in there. So right now, it looks like (and I’m using a 12-team league even though you’re in a 10, just to widen the usefulness of this):

So… four WRs, five RBs, 2 TEs, 1 QB. A little bit of everything. Which means… I can’t even force a strategy right now out of this. If it was heavy WR, I’d say get two RBs early and scoop up three WRs in the third. Or vice versa. But that’s not the case. If I had three picks in this round and things went exactly by ADP, I’d take Jones, Fournette, and Kittle. Or maybe Jones, Cooper, Kittle, depending on my first two picks.

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But here’s an idea — ignore what I said earlier about the in-draft chat room for this one specific instance and offer to trade one of those picks to another owner during the draft. People get serious FOMO and want to get in the mix of things. It’s a nice luxury to have, but you don’t really need three third-round picks, and someone is going to overpay. So work the crap out of that chat room and I bet you get some solid offers from people, either 2020 second-round picks, a 4th/6th/8th combo, or something along those lines.

Get crafty with the actual picks and not the players you take, and you may upgrade the value by playing off your fellow owners’ inability to sit still.

Does the Bills defense have the potential to be Top 5 this year? — Jasper S.

I have a sleeper DST formula that has worked pretty well for me since 2012. And it’s not deep or super-analytical.

I look at the stats in preseason and basically add up sacks+interceptions+forced fumbles. The idea behind this is that even if you’re getting third stringers out there, the overall defensive philosophy is aggressiveness, and that will carry over to the regular season. And this has actually worked for me, almost every season.

I knock off the obvious top DSTs, who usually finish among the preseason Top 5, but there are some in there that come out of nowhere and I just take the leap of faith and go for it.

I wouldn’t let this be the end-all, be-all; in fact, this season I’m reaching for the Bears because I think they’re just so far ahead of everyone else. But if I somehow get snaked, I’ll go over to the preseason stats page (anywhere you like), sort by sacks, look over at interceptions, add in forced fumbles…and pick a winner.

So, in short, if Buffalo racks them up, I’d say yes. Right now, they’re DST 15 in drafts, so I’d also say if you have a good feeling about it, grab them in the second-to-last round!

Is it possible that people are sleeping a bit on the Lions offense? Last year they traded Tate in Week 9, then Marvin Jones had a season-ending injury in week 10, and Kerryon Johnson had a season ending injury in Week 11. They had no pass catchers at TE, no WR depth, and Matt Stafford apparently had a broken bone in his back for the second half… How do they not get drastically better in 2019? — Michael G.

I’m going to say, yes. But I’m not a Lions expert. Chris Burke (our Lions writer) is. So I asked him to answer this one for you!

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“There is absolutely zero question that they should be better in 2019, and let’s not forget that — before the trade and injuries and usual Detroit humbuggery — this offense averaged 28 points from Weeks 2-7 last season (a span of five games).

T.J. Hockenson looks legit and Kerryon Johnson is a 1,000-yard threat, on top of the Marvin Jones/Kenny Golladay playmaking and Danny Amendola’s slot presence. All good things. But it’s never that simple for the Lions.

There are still lingering questions about a) how good the O-line is, b) what this offense exactly will look like under a new coordinator, and c) whether last season was a back-induced blip for Matthew Stafford or the start of a downslide.

So, yes, everything on paper is there for this to be an explosive, balanced offense that dominates in the red zone. We’ll see if it actually clicks.”

I’d also like to urge everyone to read this article by Chris after the Lions’ first week of training camp. I found this Theo Riddick analysis to be brilliant:

Asking who’s going to replace the recently cut Theo Riddick in this offense might be a slightly misguided line of questioning. The reality is that Riddick — beyond his hefty contract and diminished production — might have been expendable because this roster as it’s currently constructed doesn’t need a “third-down back.” The goal on offense, as on defense, is to be flexible enough with personnel so that the first-down and third-down packages are indecipherable.

In other words, maybe Detroit just uses Kerryon Johnson as the guy in third-and-7, or maybe it’s a motion tight end or a gimmick option like Brandon Powell/Ty Johnson, or the aforementioned empty backfield. The Lions want it to look different every time. It was too predictable in the prior offense when every third-and-medium to third-and-long saw Riddick step into the backfield.

Best Team Names? — Jonathan F.

David Gonos came up with 151 of the best for this season already. But some of my favorites were:

…and there are 151 of these!

I can keep one player this year, which would you choose? (12-teams, .5 PPR, Superflex):
Damien Williams as a 5th round pick; Andrew Luck also as a 5th; Melvin Gordon as a 3rd — William W.

Ah, sorry man. Ran out of time. MUAHAHAHAAAAAA.

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But seriously, wait as long as you possibly can —11:59 p.m. on keeper deadline day — to figure out Luck’s calf/not-calf and Gordon’s holdout. Right now, it has to be Williams.

(Top photo: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports)

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